Rising (US) Yields Should Provide a Bottom for Dollar

Posted under: MSME
Date: 2024-01-16
Rising (US) Yields Should Provide a Bottom for Dollar

ECB's Schnabel has triggered unexpected market action by noting that talk about rate cuts is premature, as the recent decline in bond yields has loosened financial conditions more than thought. This is due to the geopolitical upside risks to inflation, which is seen at target not before 2025. German yields rose 0.2-3.9 bps, with the front underperforming as money markets pared ECB cutting bets. NY Fed Williams expects a restrictive stance for some time. US yields surged but ended near intraday highs, with EUR/USD rising and USD weakening. Brent dropped, and the yen fell amid fading BoJ monetary policy expectations. The US CPI is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2%, bringing the y/y from 3.1% to 3.2%, with core inflation at 0.3% and disinflation at 3.8%. The Bank of Korea maintains a 3.5% policy rate, temporarily increasing financial support for regional SME's, and has approved Bitcoin-investing exchange-traded funds, marking a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency markets.

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