So, will artificial intelligence transform the economy? Today I thought I’d take a break from my usual preoccupation with ongoing crises to engage in a bit of bigthink about how technology may change the economic landscape in the years ahead, including a topic that seems important but hasn’t drawn much attention: how AI might change the U.S. budget outlook. Starting last fall, there was a huge surge in buzz, both positive and negative, about AI. That buzz seems to have died down to some extent, with usage of ChatGPT, the most famous implementation of the technology, declining in recent months. And many more observers have realized that what we’ve been calling AI—or what more careful people call “generative AI"—isn't really intelligence. Instead, it is extrapolation from pattern recognition. Or, as some people I talk to put it, it’s basically souped-up autocorrect.